Strait of Hormuz and the Ankara Summit

Two major geopolitical stories broke simultaneously today, and they are not unrelated. The US launched extensive strikes on Iran after three commercial vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz [1]. Meanwhile, NATO leaders opened their summit in Ankara, Turkey, with defence spending and the war in Ukraine at the top of the agenda [2]. The timing is brutal: the alliance is trying to project unity while one of its core members is bombing Iran and Iran is shooting back.

What happened in the Strait

On Tuesday, three commercial vessels were struck near the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command identified them as the Marshall Islands-flagged Al Rekayyat, the Saudi-flagged Wedyan, and the Liberia-flagged Cyprus Prosperity [3]. A tanker was hit by an "unknown projectile" that caused a fire, and at least one other vessel was struck by a drone.

The US response was immediate and large. CENTCOM reported striking over 80 targets, including Iranian air defence systems, coastal radar sites, and 60 IRGC small boats [4]. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed they hit dozens of US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait in retaliation. Bahrain's interior ministry and the Kuwaiti army both confirmed their air defence systems were triggered.

The US also revoked a temporary sanctions waiver that had allowed Iran to sell crude oil through August 21. That waiver was part of the interim ceasefire deal. Now it is gone, and oil prices jumped more than 2% on the news [5].

Why this matters beyond the Gulf

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply. Any disruption there ripples through energy markets, shipping insurance rates, and supply chains everywhere. The three vessels attacked on Tuesday were all near Oman's proposed transit corridor, a route designed to keep ships away from Iranian-controlled waters. Iran opposes that corridor because it wants to impose fees on ships using the narrow waterway [6].

Qatar, whose tanker was among those hit, summoned Iran's deputy ambassador and called the attack "unacceptable." When Gulf states start publicly condemning Iran, the diplomatic situation is deteriorating, not improving.

The Ankara summit, happening right now

While the Hormuz crisis was escalating, NATO leaders were landing in Ankara for the alliance's summit. President Trump arrived Tuesday evening and was effusive about Turkish President Erdogan, praising their "chemistry," while repeating his longstanding complaint: "I was very disappointed with NATO" [7].

The summit comes at a fraught moment for the 77-year-old alliance. NATO published figures showing core defence spending by Europe rose 11% in 2026 to $634 billion, up from $571 billion a year earlier [8]. Allies unveiled tens of billions in new arms contracts to prove they are meeting their spending pledges. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte insisted European allies were "delivering."

Ukraine is also on the agenda. Trump said he believed both Russia and Ukraine "want to make a deal" and is scheduled to meet Zelensky on the sidelines. Europe and Canada are set to pledge 70 billion euros per year in military support for Ukraine through 2027 [9].

The collision

Here is the problem. NATO is trying to hold a summit about European security, defence spending, and Ukraine. But the biggest security story of the day is a US-Iran escalation that the alliance has no formal role in. Article 5 does not apply to US strikes on Iran. The alliance cannot collectively respond to a Gulf maritime crisis because most NATO members are not belligerents.

And yet the consequences are collective. Higher oil prices hit European economies. Escalation in the Gulf diverts US military resources from Europe to the Middle East, which is exactly the gap NATO has been trying to fill with its 11% spending increase. The Ankara summit was supposed to be about burden-sharing in Europe. Instead, it is happening against the backdrop of a US military operation that reminds everyone why the burden exists.

Rutte said the US strikes on Iran were "absolutely necessary" [10]. That is a diplomatic way of saying: we will not criticize the ally that provides 70% of our military capacity, even when that ally is bombing a country we are not at war with.

What to watch

The interim US-Iran memorandum of understanding is described as "entirely performance-based." Iran's chief negotiator accused the US of "major" breaches. If the ceasefire collapses entirely, oil prices will not rise 2%, they will spike dramatically, and the NATO summit's carefully prepared talking points about spending percentages will look like rearranging deck chairs.

For Luxembourg, the immediate impact is energy prices and trade routes. Luxembourg is not a maritime nation, but its economy depends on goods that pass through chokepoints like Hormuz. The Chamber of Deputies was already debating heatwave response and online violence on Tuesday [11]. Geopolitics may not have been on the agenda, but it will be soon.