Forty-Eight

Luxembourg's National Health Fund reported a positive result for its long-term care insurance scheme in 2025. Revenues of €1.13 billion. Expenditures of €1.08 billion. A surplus of €48.3 million. The system is in the black.[1]

The surplus in 2024 was €80.7 million. The surplus in 2025 is €48.3 million. The surplus is still a surplus. The surplus shrank by 40% in one year. The system is in the black. The black is getting smaller.[1]

Total reserves reached €610.1 million by the end of the year, or 56.4% of annual expenditures. Of this, €108.2 million is the legally required minimum reserve. €501.9 million is the accumulated surplus. The reserve is the cushion. The cushion is 56% of one year of spending. The cushion was bigger last year.[1]

The warning signs

The CNS notes several structural trends putting pressure on future prospects. An ageing population. A growing number of beneficiaries. A rise in chronic illnesses. These are not predictions. These are demographics. The population is ageing because people are living longer. The number of beneficiaries is growing because the population is ageing. The chronic illnesses are rising because the population is ageing. The trends are not reversible. The trends are not negotiable. The trends are the future, and the future is already in the data.[1]

The CNS is urging sustained vigilance and forward-looking planning. Sustained vigilance is what you do when you see the trend and cannot stop it. Forward-looking planning is what you do when the trend is coming and you need to be ready. The surplus is €48.3 million. The surplus was €80.7 million. The surplus will be smaller next year. The reserve will be smaller the year after. The expenditures will be larger. The revenues will not keep up. The system is in the black. The black is getting smaller. The CNS sees it. The CNS is urging vigilance. The vigilance is the plan.[1]

Three weeks ago, the pension fund reported record payouts of €7.36 billion. The pension fund is the retirement. The long-term care insurance is what happens after retirement, when the body needs help. The pension pays for the life. The long-term care pays for the body. Both systems are reporting surpluses. Both systems are reporting warning signs. Both systems are urging vigilance. The vigilance is the plan. The plan is the vigilance. The surplus is the time you have left to figure out something better.[1]